In retrospect, the gold market has lacked definitive direction this week as safe-haven issues have been moderated at the same time that some signs of demand have surfaced, thereby limiting the market in both directions.
Certainly, the potential for flight to quality buying from the US impeachment remains in play but it would appear to be unlikely that some surprising unforeseen bombshell will surface after the intense scrutiny of the past two weeks. Therefore that issue should begin to drift to the background.
It would also seem as if the uncertainty and anxiety from the US/Chinese trade situation are draining from the marketplace, thereby leaving gold and to a lesser degree silver in a vulnerable position. In fact, given that gold in the last positioning report showed a net spec and fund long of 331,201 contracts any extension of risk on inspired new all-time highs in equities ahead should increase the potential of a retest of consolidation low support levels down at $1465.50 and $1463.
However gold ETFs saw additions yesterday of 148,011 ounces which brings this year's net purchases back up to the 10 million ounces level. Investors also bought 48,876 ounces of silver yesterday which brings this year's net purchases tally up to 84.2 million ounces.
It should be noted that Indian officials overnight indicated that the gold monetization program details would be discussed after the Indian budget is in place and he also suggested that the government was considering allowing Indian jewelers to have access to gold bank deposit accounts. While the program is designed to mobilize the investment value of gold inside India, officials have also indicated they hope the program will reduce gold imports and therefore some see that looming program as a negative to global gold prices.
In another minor longer-term negative supply-side development overnight, the Australian government has forecast expanding gold production with the potential for Australia to become the world's largest gold producer over the current number one "China".
In retrospect, the gold market this week has seen some evidence of fresh central bank gold buying from the IMF for the months of October and November, but the magnitude of that buying activity was very limited in scale because of the countries involved were not large economies. In the end, we continue to respect the gold market's ability to "stand up to bearish forces" but we also can't ignore the potential for a sudden wave of safe-haven long liquidation selling.
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Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete and/or up to date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Financial Services LLC, unless otherwise expressly noted.
