Despite a chorus of hawkish (less dovish) global central bank dialogue flowing from the IMF meeting, gold and silver prices are tracking higher perhaps because of slightly supportive outside market action in US treasuries and the dollar.

However, a new concern may be rising in the marketplace as significant declines in Japanese and South Korean currencies were acknowledged by the US Treasury Secretary at the IMF meeting with the US, Japan, and South Korean officials agreeing on the need to monitor and consult with other central banks on the situation.

Not surprisingly, the IMF dialogue has resulted in a downside extension in the US dollar this morning which could be the primary source of the gold and silver rebounds.

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(New York City – April 17, 2024) On the heels of 2022’s record use of silver in industrial applications, a new record high was set in 2023 at 654.4 million ounces (Moz). Ongoing structural gains from green economy applications underpinned these advances as they did in 2022. Higher than expected photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions and faster adoption of new-generation solar cells raised global electrical & electronics demand by a substantial 20 percent. At the same time, other green-related applications, including power grid construction and automotive electrification, also contributed to the gains.

Overall, silver demand exceeded silver supply in 2023 for the third consecutive year, resulting in a structural market deficit of 184.3 Moz...[LINK]

The bias in gold remains up despite negative divergence with silver prices and news of continued outflows from gold and silver ETF holdings.

However, yesterday gold impressively managed gains despite another significant extension of upside action in the dollar and in the face of another higher high in US treasury yields.

There are some discussions in the marketplace that some form of crisis is ahead because of the unrelenting gold market gains and the only other major market reaction to a looming global flight to quality event is the surging US dollar...[MORE]

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While the dollar has retrenched from a fresh spike up new high for the move this morning, the bias in the dollar remains up to start today.

However, soft US housing data could provide a brief respite from the strong dollar for gold and silver longs this morning.

Unfortunately for the bull camp gold and silver ETF holdings continue to decline highlighting a lack of small investor interest in one niche of the metal markets.

On the other hand, Citi has doubled down on its bullish gold price forecast projecting gold to reach $3000 in the next 6 to 18 months...[MORE]

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In addition to the major swing higher at the end of last week exaggerating the overbought conditions of gold and silver, the trade will likely have to contend with a surging US dollar, which is nearing the highest level in 5 1/2 months.

Fortunately for the bull camp, US interest rates fell back slightly on Friday with traders thinking the upward track in interest rates will now abate.

However, the Iranian drone attack directly against Israel is clearly an expansion of the fighting and could mean a country fighting a country instead of a country fighting a terrorist group...[MORE]

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With gold and silver prices significantly higher overnight in the face of a very significant upward thrust in the US dollar, it is possible the markets are beginning to aggressively embrace flight to quality buying from rising economic concerns toward China.

In fact, overnight Chinese import, and export readings came in significantly below expectations which facilitates more anxiety toward an economy thought to have serious problems.

It is also likely that rising concerns of financial pressures on developing countries are fostering flight to quality buying of gold and silver in anticipation of a financial crisis in the emerging market sector...[MORE]

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While gold has not managed a new all-time high this morning, both gold and silver markets remain just under this week's highs.

We suspect the downgrade of China provides a measure of flight to quality buying. However, China is also the largest consumer of gold, and the last mainland China gold import tally showed a month-over-month reduction of almost 50% and therefore the downgrade could injure classic physical gold demand expectations.

In a sign of volatility potential in the current market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange implemented trading limits on gold and copper starting Friday...[MORE]

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The overnight action is a good example of how the gold and silver trade is tracking its own course, as interest rates, currency, bitcoin, and energy prices are not giving off notable influences and yet gold and silver prices have surged again with gold posting another new all-time high.

Therefore, it is unlikely gold is tracking a classic safe harbor issue with a broad global origin.

In a slightly negative signal, both gold and silver ETF holdings declined yesterday, with the gold extraction of 299,047 ounces the largest single-day exodus in three months...[MORE]

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While the gold and silver markets exhibited significant two-sided volatility at the end of last week, the bull trend has clearly prevailed and is managing that action despite adversity from the dollar and interest rates.

However, a small portion of the upside impetus is likely the failed Middle East peace talks undertaken by Egypt.

It appears that gold and silver ETF holdings have started to climb with the flat price of gold in a potential beginning of the end of the rally...[MORE]

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Clearly, gold and silver prices lost upside momentum in the wake of a very active US economic report slate this week that has presented a mixed outlook for the US economy and surprisingly failed to markedly increase expectations for a US June rate cut.

Certainly, the markets have been disappointed by Fed dialogue seemingly playing down and or pushing back the prospect of rate cuts!

However, the gold and silver trade will likely remain sensitive and perhaps poised to rally if today's key nonfarm payroll reading is softer and the takeaway from US data shifts sentiment toward economic risk...[MORE]

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With a downside extension in the dollar, another new all-time high in June gold was to be expected this morning.

Apparently, the latest surge was ignited by a bullish interpretation of Fed commentary yesterday reiterating the likely prospects of rate cuts "this year". Surprisingly, the Fed's vagueness on timing for a cut and even less guidance on the number of potential cuts has not deterred gold buyers or dollar sellers.

Seeing gold ETF holdings rise by 78,610 ounces yesterday and silver ETF holdings jumping by 2.8 million ounces, the record run in gold appears to have finally gotten the attention of small investors...[MORE]

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Another day and another new all-time high in gold prices with the market managing the rally in the face of adversity from the dollar and US treasury yields.

According to overnight press coverage from Asia, gold prices are being lifted by inflationary pressures resulting in the purchasing of gold as a hedge.

However, we are suspicious of that argument as inflation data has softened and delays in cutting interest rates should reduce inflationary expectations...[MORE]

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The record run in gold prices continues and has pulled silver prices up seemingly against headwinds.

Utilizing typical market interactions, the gold run seems to be unfolding in a virtual vacuum. In fact, the gains in gold and silver prices yesterday took place in the face of heavy headwinds from a strong dollar and rising US interest rates.

While the reduced probability of three rate cuts may create economic uncertainty and a measure of anxiety, thereby providing flight to quality interest in gold, that theory is squashed by the lack of anxiety in equities and the lack of upside action in Bitcoin...[MORE]

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The views that gold prices are being pulled higher by Bitcoin are dealt a blow this morning with gold at times trading nearly $40 an ounce higher and bitcoin at times trading $2000 lower.

Another potential myth regarding the record run in gold is talk that global central bankers are dumping the dollar in favor of long gold positions.

While we suspect central bankers have investment plans in motion to buy gold, the dollar has not suffered from a massive rotation.

On the other hand, hedge fund managers continue to build their long positions...[MORE]

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We are surprised the gold market is tracking in positive ground this morning considering the sharp upside breakout extension in the dollar, slightly higher US treasury yields, and perhaps most importantly in the face of comments from the Fed's Waller indicating he needed at least two more months of favorable inflation data to be comfortable cutting rates.

However, Waller's comments do not preclude a June rate cut considering the two-month qualifying statement, with [Friday's] PCE readings for February.

This morning the CME Fed watch tool pegs the odds of a June 12th rate cut at only 55.4% compared to 64% yesterday...[MORE]

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Even though June gold has managed to build consolidation low support just under $2200, the dollar charts show residual bullishness which in turn offers overhead resistance for gold and silver.

Today's US economic report slate presents minimal news from weekly mortgage applications and a seven-year note auction at midsession.

With June gold flaring sharply higher and giving up those gains quickly yesterday, the market has given off another blowoff top signal on the charts. However, the gold market also forged a blowoff top last week and at times yesterday had recovered $42 of the $66 slide...[MORE]

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With a weaker US dollar and an initial higher high for the move in Bitcoin, outside market forces favor the bull camp in gold and silver.

Certainly, gold will continue to draft support from the long list of flight-to-quality issues, but signs of an overbought condition in the Indian gold market is concerning.

With growing concerns of exploding gold loans, the Reserve Bank of India has instructed the country's largest gold loan non-bank finance company to halt fresh gold loans, and there are reports that Indian buyers are experiencing price shock...[MORE]

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After a strong start to Thursday post-FOMC, precious metals fell back from early highs with gold finishing with a moderate gain while silver had an outside-day lower close and a reversal from a 3 1/2-month high, and both metals have followed through to the downside early in today's action.

Going into the weekend and with one holiday-shortened week left in the first quarter, both metals are vulnerable to profit-taking and additional long liquidation today.

The FOMC meeting results maintained the Fed's projection of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of this year, and that has increased the chances for a June rate cut which in turn provided a boost to the precious metals...[MORE]

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Precious metals have broken out to the upside in a very positive reaction to the FOMC meeting results.

June gold has reached a new record high while May silver reached a 3 1/2-month high early in today's action, and both are holding onto those gains this morning.

Gold and silver have benefited from the sizable pullback in the dollar after it reached a 3-week high before the FOMC meeting results. While the dollar has found its footing, it remains well below Wednesday's high and is providing support to metals markets...[MORE]

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While gold prices have regained the upper hand on silver, both are holding in relatively tight price ranges this morning.

After this afternoon's Fed meeting results and Fed Chair Powell's press conference, gold and silver are likely to break out of those tight ranges.

The dollar has rallied to a 3-week high in a "buy the fact" reaction to the first Bank of Japan rate hike in 17 years, and that continues to pressure gold and silver prices...[MORE]

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The Zaner Metals team attended the American Numismatic Association Money Show last week.

The Broadmoor is a spectacular venue and the crowds didn't seem deterred at all by the snowstorm that began on Wednesday and continued into Thursday.

The Upstate Coin & Gold client appreciation dinner at the United States Olympic Museum was amazing!

We had many great conversations about hedging precious metals inventory, eCommerce solutions, and inventory management. We hope to continue those conversations in the weeks ahead.

Shout-out to Dane and Adam of Olevian Numismatic Rarities, Tom Hallenbeck of Hallenbeck Coin Gallery, Inc., and all the rest for freely sharing your valuable industry insights. We fully anticipate incorporating some of your ideas into upcoming product releases.

It was great to see old friends and make new connections. We look forward to seeing all of you at upcoming shows.

In the meantime, if you have questions about our product offerings or wish to get set up with a demo of the Tornado Hedging Platform, please give us a call at 312-549-9986.

While gold and silver saw divergent trading action at the start of this week, they are both on the defensive early on.

There was a role reversal Monday with gold regaining the upper hand on silver as both remain close to 2024 price highs.

The dollar has extended its mid-March recovery to a 3-week high in the wake of the Bank of Japan's first rate hike since 2007 as the Yen had a "sell the fact" reaction falling to a new low for the move and that in turn put early pressure on precious metals prices...[MORE]

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With several critical central bank meetings this week, gold and silver are finding mild pressure early on.

The precious metals saw mixed results on Friday as gold could not shake off mild early pressure by the close, while silver rallied to a 3½-month high.

A mixed tone in recent US economic data has led to uncertainty over the Fed's rate cut outlook this year...[MORE]

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With another higher high for the move early today in the dollar and treasury yields hovering just below the three-week highs posted yesterday, the gold and silver trade should continue to feel the looming threat of liquidation.

On the one hand, gold and silver prices deserved a measure of corrective weakness after such massive gains over the last two months.

However, the corrective action in gold and gold-related instruments was broad yesterday with gold mining shares giving back recent noted gains...[MORE]

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Even though April gold posted a solid gain in Wednesday's trade, further confirmation of residual/sticky US inflation today could unleash an additional and perhaps more aggressive long liquidation washout.

Fortunately for the bull camp, the US dollar has not rallied on stubborn signs of sticky US inflation and declining US rate cut hopes, but that could change if Tuesday's inflation concern is reconfirmed by today's inflation news.

It should also be noted that Bitcoin posted new all-time highs again and, most gold mining shares showed significant gains yesterday with Newmont and Barrick up 1.7%, Harmony gold up 3.6% and Sibanye Stillwater up 6.7%...[MORE]

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While the dollar has not shown fresh direction following its aggressive recovery bounce yesterday, the upward bias from the charts and a measure of newfound respect for lingering inflation reduces the prospect of US easing in June.

However, gold and silver should be cushioned by continued chatter about a European rate cut in June.

In today's action, the markets could simply "mark time" as the other shoe to drop (Thursday's PPI) could easily rekindle another upward pulse in the dollar and downward pulse action in gold and silver...[MORE]

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There is no doubt the gold market has expended a tremendous amount of speculative buying fuel in achieving a $200 rally and today the trade will finally see the true origin of the rally.

In our opinion, part of the significant rally in gold is the market's attempt to mirror the record rally in Bitcoin, with a lesser force from hopes of a June rate cut.

Clearly, traders are becoming price-sensitive as Friday's massive range-up move has stalled and trading volume has moderated significantly...[MORE]

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With outside market action remaining in favor of the bear camp early today, the bull camp remains hopeful that this week's inflation data will further revive the prospect of a US rate cut, which in turn would continue to pressure the dollar and treasury yields lower.

However, the gold market is vulnerable this morning following comments from the Indian Bullion and Jewelers Association suggesting Indian wedding season demand will soften due to record pricing.

Along those lines, the domestic Indian gold trade has seen prices shift into a discount relative to global markets, with Chinese premiums narrowing...[MORE]

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Higher all-time highs overnight are clearly justified by ongoing outside market assistance.

In addition to a multiweek low in US treasury yields, the gold and silver bulls were presented with a downside extension in the dollar to the lowest levels since the middle of January!

In retrospect, outside market forces for gold this week became entrenched in favor of the bull camp with a distinct pattern of US slowing evidence, a slightly dovish US Fed takeaway, and increased expectations for a June rate cut from the ECB...[MORE]

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While the views might be misguided and premature, a segment of the market believes interest rate cuts are likely to rekindle inflation which could be the source of the recent buying frenzy in gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

Another bullish catalyst for gold and other physical commodities came from strong Chinese commodity imports which provides hope the Chinese economy is recovering. Keep in mind, the Chinese are the world's largest gold consumers!

However, April gold has continued to surge over the last 48 hours while Bitcoin has seemingly stalled questioning the correlation between the two markets...[MORE]

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Obviously, gold and silver are short-term overbought from a technical perspective and perhaps somewhat overbought from a fundamental perspective.

Nonetheless, with gold and silver prices vaulting higher yesterday and gold prices forging record highs again, the bull camp retains control even without a definitively apparent bullish fundamental theme.

However, gold has forged a five-day low-to-high rally of $123 which suggests the bull camp will need some "help" from the US Federal Reserve Chairman's testimony this morning...[MORE]

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With both gold and silver posting higher highs overnight it is clear the bullish track from the prior three trading sessions has remained in place.

In fact, given a significant dip in eurozone producer prices of 0.9%, the prospects of an ECB rate cut in June have jumped.

Apparently, the gold and silver trade are not unnerved by the disappointing Chinese Caixin services PMI reading, but that could be the result of anticipation of a Chinese stimulus package announcement...[MORE]

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Apparently, expectations for a June US interest rate cut have returned which in turn fueled the most significant gold and silver rallies since early December.

However, the CME Fed Watch tool did not show a significant increase in the probability of a June rate cut from just below 50% early last week to only 52.8% after the close Friday.

Therefore, the gold and silver markets are anticipating the continuation of soft US and international data which has already resulted in widespread talk of eurozone, Japanese, and Canadian rate cuts in June...[MORE]

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In retrospect, the action in gold and silver this week has been nothing short of stellar given periodic adversity from strength in the dollar.

Furthermore, gold managed to shrug off headwinds from signs of slowing in the US and European economies especially with gold at times over the last several weeks seemingly benefiting from "hope" of a recovery in physical/industrial gold demand following a global macroeconomic euphoria wave.

Apparently, the gold trade interpreted yesterday's US PCE report result as a sign inflation was slowing which apparently keeps US rate cut hopes alive...[MORE]

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Not surprisingly, the markets expected to be impacted by today's critical US inflation reading (PCE) and they have forged tight trading ranges again overnight as many traders avoid implementing fresh positions in front of what could be a critical trend-deciding report in the form of US PCE later today.

Fortunately for the bull camp, open interest in gold has come down significantly since the middle of last month, potentially suggesting the market found solid value earlier this month around $2,000.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, a US PCE reading above +0.3% will likely relaunch the dollar sharply higher and set the stage for a return to $2,000 in April gold in the coming sessions...[MORE]

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With an upside breakout in the US dollar overnight surprisingly forged in the wake of a series of soft US data points over the last 5 sessions, the markets are expecting today's US GDP report to partially right the ship of the US economy.

However, it is also possible the dollar is feeding higher off persistent hawkish views from Federal Reserve members which could be expected to reach a fever pitch just before midsession today with the Fed's Bostic, Collins, and Williams speaking just ahead of midsession.

Expectations for US GDP call for no revision in a previous growth rate of 3.3%. While not a definitive bullish impact, a Russian gold mining group indicated last year's gold production declined by 6.8% on a base output of 412,500 Troy ounces...[MORE]

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With a three-day low in the dollar extending a lower high and lower low pattern and US treasuries posting early gains, gold and silver bulls have an edge from outside market action.

The dollar was clearly undermined by disappointing US new home sales readings for January yesterday, and we suspect the trade saw some anticipatory selling ahead of what is expected to be a very soft US durable goods report today (expectations -4.5%).

While we think softer economic activity will undermine gold and silver prices because of the recent focus on the potential for improved physical demand, it is possible a very disappointing US durable goods report will knock the dollar sharply lower and in turn help gold and silver find firm support...[MORE]

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The action in gold this morning should be concerning to the bull camp as the dollar remains vulnerable on its charts with five straight days of lower highs.

While not a major supportive development, treasury prices have added to last week's late rebound early today.

With a lack of global economic data overnight, generally lower equities, and a veritable avalanche of US scheduled data ahead this week some gold longs might be taking profits and moving to the sidelines temporarily...[MORE]

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Gold slipped on Monday as markets pared back expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and cautiously awaited a key inflation reading this week, which is likely to provide an updated view on the timing of interest rate cuts.

Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $2,033.89 per ounce as of 1005 GMT, after rising to its highest since Feb. 7 on Friday. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3% to $2,043.30 per ounce...[LINK]

While the press continues to tout flight to quality buying interest in gold from events in the Middle East, we are highly suspicious of that argument and think the ebb and flow of the dollar index trade is the primary focus of the gold trade.

Therefore, with the downside breakout/plunge in the dollar to the lowest level since February 2nd overnight, US treasury yields potentially capping out just below three-month highs, and broad-based risk-on sentiment from good Nvidia earnings the bull camp has several credible themes.

While it is possible that gold is deriving some investment support from surging Harmony gold mining shares, the company also predicted their production would increase by 14% and they recorded higher grades of ore than year-ago levels which are limiting gold futures prices...[MORE]

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With a higher high for the move overnight April gold has extended a slight bullish edge into another trading session.

Surprisingly April gold managed the higher high despite a measure of strength in the dollar.

However, a very minor and indirect negative impact on gold overnight came from a very hot New Zealand producer price index reading which for some keeps fear of global inflation in place.

In today's early action traders will be confronted with a US Fed speech, a 20-year US treasury bond auction, and perhaps most importantly the release of the FOMC meeting minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting...[MORE]

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Gold prices rose on Wednesday as investors looked to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting for cues on timing of interest rate cuts, while safe-haven demand buoyed by escalating conflict in the Middle East also lent support.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,027.96 per ounce as of 1012 GMT. Prices had climbed to their highest since Feb. 9 earlier in the session...[LINK]

Gold prices held steady on Tuesday despite a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields, as investors awaited the minutes of the last U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting for more clues on its interest rate cut timing.

Spot gold was flat at $2,018.03 per ounce, as of 0341 GMT. Most of the U.S. markets were closed on Monday for the President’s Day holiday...[LINK]

Gold prices rose to a nearly one-week high on Monday as a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and escalating tensions in the Middle East lifted bullion’s safe-haven appeal.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,019.99 per ounce, as of 0530 GMT, hitting its highest since Feb. 13...[LINK]

U.S. PPI +0.3% in Jan, above expectations of +0.1%, vs downward revised -0.2% in Dec; 0.9% y/y, down from 1.0% in Dec.

Core +0.5%, above expectations of +0.2%, vs downward revised -0.1% in Dec; 2.0% y/y, vs revised 1.7% in Dec.

Gold has softened in reaction but remains confined to yesterday's range.

With the gold market sitting at levels that would create the first weekly loss of this year, the dollar minimally higher, treasury yields minimally higher and US producer price index report for January scheduled for release this morning, gold is likely to experience a flare of volatility which will likely dissipate quickly.

While we see the current fundamental and technical trend pointing down, as expected or softer than expected PPI readings (expectations of +0.1%) could dramatically increase respect for the $2000 level and prompt a short covering wave capable of sending April gold up to $2026.

However, the trade will be presented with a second wave of US inflation information in the form of the University of Michigan five-year consumer inflation expectations report for the month of February...[MORE]

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While April gold is tracking in positive territory early today and has established a key pivot point around $2005, the onus is on the bull camp to prove the market can respect even number consolidation support at $2000.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, gold ETF holdings continue to slide with year-to-date outflows of 2.8% taking place in less than 50 days.

While Indian gold imports in January increased to $1.9 billion that is probably a function of the recovery in gold prices and not necessarily from increased volume...[MORE]

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While the magnitude of yesterday's US CPI upside surprise was not significant, the markets were clearly undermined by another US data point which appears to push back US rate cut timing.

Today the markets will have a pause from US inflation news with several Fed speeches potentially providing some fireworks.

However, the US dollar is sitting right on the spike-up highs from yesterday early today leaving the currency influence on gold and silver bearish...[MORE]

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There has been notable divergence in precious metals with gold holding within its 2024 consolidation zone while silver is still within striking distance of a new 4-month low.

The gold/silver ratio was just above 92 at yesterday's close and approaching the 17-month high reached in mid-January.

The dollar remains well below Monday's 2 1/2-month high which has underpinned metals prices early today.

Fed speakers gave mixed comments on upcoming Fed policy yesterday, and the market's disappointment that there was not an overall dovish tone has weighed on gold and silver prices...[MORE]

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After a rough start to February, the tide may have turned for gold prices as they remain well clear of Monday's low.

Silver prices have reached a 2-week low while platinum and palladium are also under moderate early pressure.

The Dollar has extended its pullback after a surprise downtick from a private survey of US economic optimism, which carried more weight with the market than usual on Tuesday as there were no top-tier US economic numbers to digest...[MORE]

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This could be a banner year for silver, with prices potentially hitting a decade-high.

Global silver demand is forecast to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, which would mark the second-highest level on record, the Silver Institute said in a recent report...[LINK]

Gold prices were stuck in a relatively tight range on Wednesday as traders turned their attention to remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve officials through the week that may provide more clues on the interest-rate path this year.

Spot gold was last down 0.08% to $2,033.79 per ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.09% to $2,049.30 per ounce...[LINK]

The sharp rally in the dollar has clearly undermined support for the precious metals, along with the break in Treasury prices.

Fed Chair Powell's comments on 60 Minutes put to rest any ideas that the Fed would consider cutting rates in March, and this sparked a breakout rally in the dollar to its highest level since November 14.

Comments from other Fed officials reinforced this stance, with Fed Governor Michele Bowman saying it is too soon to consider lowering interest rates and Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsby saying he wants to see more inflation progress...[MORE]

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Not surprisingly, the gold market started off under noted pressure today with a six-day low largely because of the upside breakout in the dollar to the highest level since mid-November and from a slight increase in US treasury yields following a hawkish overnight speech from the US Fed chairman.

With the gold market adding to the January recovery rally last week before failing and reversing the market was giving off technical signs of an intermediate top last week.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, outside market impacts of the dollar and treasuries shifted patently bearishly after the much stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll reading...[MORE]

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Clearly, the gold and silver markets are not benefiting from flight to quality interest early today as the fear of financial contagion in China continues to rise with Chinese equities plunging sharply this week. This is beginning to create "margin calls" which can prompt a chain reaction of problems for banks, investors, and eventually the government.

Sentiment toward gold early today is disappointing to the bull camp as a downside breakout in the dollar has not produced a wave of fresh buying yet.

In fact, it should be noted that the March dollar index fell below its 200-day moving average and posted a seven-day low in the early trade...[MORE]

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Gold prices steadied on Friday as investors braced for U.S. non-farm payrolls data later in the day that could give hints on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates, but bullion was still headed for its biggest weekly rise since December.

Spot gold was down 0.1% to $2,054.29 per ounce. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% to $2,071.40...[LINK]

With the dollar posting a technical breakout on the upside this morning, gold and silver bulls are fortunate treasury yields have remained low overnight.

Global economic news overnight was mixed to slightly softer, which might be considered a negative to gold but more so to silver given its industrial focus.

However, the overriding weight on the back of gold prices this morning is clear sentiment from the US Fed chairman that a rate cut in their next meeting in March is not their base case...[MORE]

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Jan 31 (Reuters) - Gold prices reversed course and edged lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back strongly against expectations of a U.S. rate cut by March.

Spot gold eased 0.1% at $2,034.37 per ounce by 03:10 p.m. ET (2010 GMT) after rising as much as 1% earlier in the session. Bullion was down 1.3% this month but have held above the $2,000 per ounce psychological level so far this year...[LINK]

While the charts in gold tilt in favor of the bull camp, the upward bias is likely a simple drift toward the top of the last month and a half consolidation pattern.

Outside market influences early today are offsetting with supportive treasuries countered by minimal strength in the dollar.

The gold market is likely experiencing some headwinds following the release of the World Gold Council's latest report. In fact, global gold demand fell by 5% last year even without including the negative demand registered by outflows from ETF and OTC gold-based instruments...[MORE]

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With April gold breaking out to the highest level since January 19th, US interest rates continuing to decline, and a tight range bound dollar that leaves the bull camp with the edge.

Furthermore, the market should find fresh support from news that Indian 2023 gold imports in their latest fiscal year increased by 26.7%.

However, comparative Indian gold imports from the prior year were also sharply higher potentially suggesting an improved Indian gold import pattern...[MORE]

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With a three-day high and a developing pattern of higher highs and higher lows, the technical picture for gold has improved.

However, with a stronger Dollar to start, the positive start in gold and silver might indicate the metals are embracing flight to quality uncertainty from China which saw a major property company forced by a Hong Kong Court to liquidate its assets.

The markets continue to see chatter regarding rate cuts from the ECB and stories suggesting the Fed is already acting which signal a pivot...[MORE]

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Apparently, severe losses in Chinese equity markets has prompted Chinese officials to consider implementing a $278 billion rescue package.

Therefore, gold may see some limited flight to quality buying interest, but as mentioned many times over the last year, the gold and silver trade are not as sensitive to flight to quality events as in the past.

On the other hand, if the situation becomes dire and there is a chance of contagion that could pull in a noted measure of spec and fund longs...[MORE]

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While the US dollar is showing some vulnerability on its charts early today, treasury yields may have temporarily peaked leaving the primary outside market influences slightly supportive of gold.

However, we see no reason to take control away from the bear camp with the hedge funds reducing their long positioning last week, another week of ETF holding declines, an overbought net spec and fund positioning, a residual negative global commodity market environment, and perhaps most importantly from growing economic concerns in China.

With the last COT positioning report showing the net spec and fund long in gold near the highest levels since May 2022, falling trading volume and declining open interest on last week's recovery bounce, the bear camp retains control over the trend...[MORE]

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While the gold and silver markets are showing initial strength this morning, outside market action leaves the bear camp with a prevailing edge.

In fact, despite initial weakness in the dollar, disastrous retail sales readings from the UK should leave the dollar in favor and physical commodities like gold off balance.

Furthermore, US treasury yields have clawed higher this week with yields overnight reaching the highest level since December 13th...[MORE]

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While February gold did not post a lower low trade overnight, fundamental developments favor more declines and a trade below $2000.

In addition to hawkish ECB dialogue predicting no rate cuts until summer, expectations for a US cut have been pushed further into the future with US data continuing to signal an economy holding together which in turn has been accompanied by a consistent reduction in the probability of a first quarter US rate cut.

However, the bull camp should get some credit for prices tracking in positive territory this morning especially with the Chinese Premier discounting the prospects of a stimulus package from the government...[MORE]

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Fortunately for the bull camp in gold and silver the upside breakout extension in the dollar overnight has been offset by a minimal decline in US treasury yields.

However, the charts in the dollar project higher action ahead, and the US economic reports slate today is very active potentially rekindling rate cut timing debate.

In the end, the dollar is underpinned, and gold is pressured from Fed Gov. Waller's comments yesterday cautioning the Fed against rushing to cut rates before establishing inflation has been slayed...[MORE]

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In addition to gapping higher overnight, the dollar index reached the highest level since December 13th in a reaction that appears to carry follow-through potential.

Adding to the bearish track for gold and silver to start the new trading week, US treasury yields are climbing and gold ETF holdings at the end of last week had posted nine straight days of outflows, with holdings last week reduced by 656,635 ounces. Year-to-date gold ETF holdings are already down 1.2% while silver ETF holdings are down only 0.6% year-to-date.

From a longer-term perspective, the gold market could see lift from Chinese President Xi Jinping who announced China would push for high-quality development of its financial sector and would accelerate the creation of a modern financial system as that necessitates the need for a faster expansion of Chinese central bank gold reserves to backstop its currency in the eyes of the world trade...[MORE]

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Jan 16 (Reuters) - Gold prices declined on Tuesday, hurt by a strengthening dollar and Treasury yields, as markets wait to hear remarks from several Federal Reserve officials this week to further gauge the central bank's monetary policy path.

Spot gold was down 0.8% at $2,037.40 per ounce, as of 1212 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $2,041.50...[LINK]

Jan 15 (Reuters) - Gold prices advanced on Monday, as the metal's appeal was boosted by safe-haven demand owing to tensions in the Middle-East, while markets raised bets that the Federal reserve will cut rates sooner than expected.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,053.51 per ounce, as of 1320 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,058.00, with trading expected to be low due to the Martin Luther King Day holiday...[LINK]

With the dollar slightly higher and US treasuries flat a $24 rally in gold and a $0.40 rally in silver is likely the result of US and Great Britain attacks on suspected Yemeni terrorists' strongholds inside Yemen.

Apparently, the oil and precious metal markets see the onshore strikes in Yemen as an escalation and perhaps a catalyst for an expansion of military aggression in the area.

While the crude oil market is only up $2.40, a flight-to-quality situation is unfolding and has sparked an unusual migration to gold and silver...[MORE]

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Jan 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices gained on Friday as fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East lifted the appeal of the safe-haven metal despite stronger than expected U.S. inflation data boosting the dollar and Treasury yields.

Spot gold was up 1% at $2,048.20 an ounce at 1254 GMT, extending its run above the $2,000 level to nearly a month. U.S. gold futures were up 1.7% at $2,053.50...[LINK]

While events that are widely anticipated to present significant volatility can sometimes be disappointing with a muted response, the stakes for many financial markets are significant today as the pendulum of expectations for an early US rate cut has been pulled down with a series of US Fed speeches generally indicating the fight against inflation is not complete yet.

Fortunately for the bull camp in gold and silver the action in bond and dollar markets this week has not shifted definitively bearish from the reduction in rate cut expectations but today presents a possible breakout session with a dollar trade above 102.385 a big problem for the bull camp.

On the other hand, a trade in the dollar below 101.835 could save the day for the bull camp and launch February gold above $2050...[MORE]

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Jan 11 (Reuters) - Gold prices climbed on Thursday, buoyed by a softer dollar, while markets awaited a key U.S. inflation report later in the day that could help gauge the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory this year.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,033.70 per ounce, as of 1206 GMT. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.6% to $2,038.90...[LINK]

While it appears gold and silver have settled into sideways consolidation patterns, that is likely to end with tomorrow's US CPI report, especially if a slightly hotter reading is posted. However, analysis of the data is difficult given the potential for fractional change.

The range trade is certainly justified considering that neither gold nor silver has a definitive internal fundamental driven bias with prices of gold within proximity to all-time highs and the speculative positioning in gold futures and options leaving the market vulnerable to stop loss selling on violations of key support.

With the US dollar posting a higher high yesterday and posting a higher low, and treasury prices likely to remain capped, the gold market could fail at the $2,025 level in the coming sessions...[MORE]

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Jan 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged up on Wednesday, supported by a slightly weaker U.S. dollar ahead of a critical inflation report that could offer some clues on whether the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year.

Spot gold gained 0.2% to $2,033.90 per ounce, as of 1148 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,040.00 per ounce...[LINK]

While gold has recovered from yesterday's spike-down move and has spent the overnight trade in positive territory, the charts have not reversed course and we suspect more declines ahead which in turn should pull down open interest.

In fact, it should be noted that the declines in gold have been accompanied by periodic jumps in trading volume which we think confirms the downward tilt.

While gold has seen outside market influence wain, treasury prices appear to be trending negative for gold, and we see the general impact from outside markets as bearish in the near term...[MORE]

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Gold prices rose on Tuesday after touching a three-week low in the previous session as traders reassessed interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve after a report showed consumers expect lower inflation this year.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,038.99 per ounce after hitting its lowest level since Dec. 18 on Monday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.6% to $2,045.4 per ounce...[LINK]

With a fresh lower low and the lowest trade since December 13th in February gold overnight the downtrend of the last two weeks looks to extend.

Certainly, the gold bulls were initially heartened by the failure to sustain dollar gains after a better-than-expected US jobs report but given the lack of definitively bullish internal fundamental storylines for gold, the bull camp "needs" a definitively weaker dollar!

Not surprisingly, investors remain cool toward gold with ETF holdings last week falling by 349,662 ounces leaving holdings down 0.4% early in the new year...[MORE]

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Jan 8 (Reuters) - Gold prices slid on Monday to trade near a three-week low touched in the last session, as the U.S. dollar and bond yields were buoyant on reduced hopes of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve and as markets awaited for a key inflation print this week.

Spot gold slipped 0.9% at $2,027.87 per ounce as of 1033 GMT, hovering near its lowest level since Dec. 19 touched in the last session. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 fell 0.7% to $2,034.40...[LINK]

With a rising dollar and rising interest rates pressuring the markets again this morning and the prospect of US rate cut being pushed back with further strong US jobs data today the slide from the late December high is likely to extend in earnest today.

In other words, without a surprisingly weak jobs report reductions in the probability of a March rate cut should continue.

Keep in mind, US non-farm payroll counts are still "growing" (albeit monthly additions are shrinking) and impatient bond traders have started to question their perception of the potential for a March cut...[MORE]

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Jan 5 (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped on Friday and were on track for their first weekly fall in four, weighed down by a stronger dollar and higher bond yields, while investors keenly awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later in the day.

Spot gold was down 0.2% to $2,038.49 per ounce as of 1223 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $2,045.40...[LINK]

The weakening dollar gives the gold bulls the upper hand this morning.

Although the depth of this bull move is questionable as many bond traders have cut their March rate cut probabilities to 70%, from 85%, sending US rates higher.

With other nations potentially cutting interest rates more aggressively than the Fed, the dollar is at risk of staying stronger than expected, putting pressure on gold prices, even despite potential rate cuts. Gold bulls must take this shift in timing and probabilities seriously...[MORE]

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Jan 4 (Reuters) - Gold prices rebounded from a two-week low on Thursday, as a pullback in the dollar lifted demand among investors who are looking ahead to a U.S. jobs report that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.

Spot gold was up 0.2% to $2,044.69 per ounce as of 1210 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Dec. 21 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,052.10 per ounce...[LINK]

The gold bears were out this morning as worries over Japanese insurers dumping U.S. government bonds, to cover losses related to this week's earthquakes, sent both bond yields and the dollar sharply higher.

This gold sell-off comes as central banks continue to talk about the need for weaker economic data before they discuss rate cuts, and, on cue, we saw better-than-expected employment data in Europe, adding to worries of a slower-than-expected central bank pivot.

Furthermore, the trade today could see early selling intensify if US ISM manufacturing data comes in positive as expected especially with the afternoon release of the FOMC meeting minutes as any pushing back of US rate cut timing is clearly a major blow to the bull case...[MORE]

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Gold prices slipped to their lowest in a week on Wednesday as the dollar firmed, while investors looked ahead to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting and U.S. jobs data for more clarity on potential interest rate cuts.

Spot gold was down 0.3% to $2,053.10 per ounce. U.S. gold futures were down 0.5% to $2,062.20 per ounce...[LINK]

The bulls started the New Year in control as gold prices rallied in the early morning after Israel attacked Syria in response to a rocket attack, and Turkey arrested 33 Israeli "spies".

There is fear that this might be the start of a deeper regional destabilization following the US Navy's sinking of three Houthi ships in the Red Sea, and Iran sending a warship into the Red Sea.

US interest rates were higher overnight and the dollar managed to rally sharply to start the year...[MORE]

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Dec 29 (Reuters) - Gold investors anticipate record high prices next year, when the fundamentals of a dovish pivot in U.S. interest rates, continued geopolitical risk, and central bank buying are expected to support the market after a volatile 2023.

Spot gold is on track to post a 13% annual rise in 2023, its best year since 2020, trading around $2,060 per ounce...[LINK]

The early corrective action in gold and silver this morning is very surprising, especially with the dollar breaking out and posting the lowest trade since the second half of July.

Certainly, a slight uptick in implied treasury yields suggests the rate-cut mentality is at least temporarily overplayed.

On the other hand, today's US initial and ongoing claims data will likely revive the rate cut watch with the probability of Fed easing rising incrementally with each soft US data point...[MORE]

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Dec 28 (Reuters) - Gold prices steadied after hitting a more than three-week high on Thursday, deriving support from a weaker U.S. dollar and lower bond yields as markets bet on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve early next year.

Spot gold was steady at $2,072.09 per ounce at 1206 GMT after earlier rising as high as 2,088.29, the most since Dec. 4. U.S. gold futures were down 0.5% at $2,082.20...[LINK]

With a new low for the move in the dollar early today and slightly weaker treasury rates, gold and silver bulls look to extend their recent control.

In addition to the constant lift from the fully entrenched expectation of lower global rates gold and silver are likely to benefit from favorable Chinese industrial profit results as China remains the number one consumer of gold.

Apparently, the Chinese central bank has predicted China will achieve its 5% growth target next year and that combined with signs of continued cash infusions from the Bank of India provides a very solid demand base...[MORE]

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Gold prices steadied on Wednesday as trading was muted in the last week of the year, but bullion was headed for its best year in three on expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the first quarter of 2024.

Spot gold was flat at $2,067.14 per ounce, not far from an over two-week high of $2070.39 hit on Friday. Bullion was on track to mark an over 10% gain this year — its best since 2020...[LINK]

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields on expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next year.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,062.63 an ounce near 7:30 a.m. ET after hitting a more than two-week high of $2,070.39 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $2,073.20...[LINK]

Contrasted with historic inflation/gold price patterns, further evidence of "sharply falling" global inflation provides gold and silver with ongoing fundamental cushion.

In other words, "significant" declines in UK, eurozone, and Italian inflation (Italian year-over-year producer prices declined by a startling 12.6%) directly or indirectly provide the US Fed with evidence that US inflation is also poised to fall.

While the CME Fed funds watch tool has not registered a significant increase in the probability of a March US rate cut this week, it is possible that reality is catching up with what the Feds Goolsbee earlier this week indicated was market expectations for cuts running ahead of the Fed's internal dialogue...[MORE]

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Dec 21 (Reuters) - Gold prices crept higher on Thursday, but traded in a relatively tight range as investors looked to U.S. economic data for further clarity on the Federal Reserve's next monetary move.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,034.79 per ounce, as of 1217 GMT, trading in a narrow $10 range in the session so far. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,046.30...[LINK]

With some global inflation readings plummeting overnight and others coming in below expectations, the prospect of rate cuts next year has improved again.

In fact, the CME Fed watch tool raised prospects of a January 31st cut by 4% to 12.4% and increased its March rate cut prospect to 71%.

However, despite renewed rate cut chatter and a downward bias in the dollar both gold and silver are trading lower signaling a lack of bullish sensitivity today...[MORE]

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Gold prices held steady above the key $2,000 level on Wednesday, supported by prospects of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year, while investors awaited U.S. inflation numbers later this week.

Spot gold was little changed at $2,032.60 per ounce, as of 0131 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% at $2,046.10...[LINK]

The path of least resistance in gold is down with hawkish dialogue from the Chicago Fed President yesterday, November Swiss gold exports dropping 28% (mostly because the world's second-largest consumer India imported 67% less gold from Switzerland), and from a lack of corrective action in the dollar following last weeks compacted rally.

However, an offset to the negative demand signals from declining Swiss gold exports is the fact that Chinese purchases from Switzerland increased by ten percent on 25 tons in sales versus the lower 16.4 ton sales to India.

With both volume and open interest falling off and given the reversal from last week's highs, we suspect the bullish bias from last week has run its course...[MORE]

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Gold prices were subdued on Tuesday as a slight uptick in the dollar countered support from falling Treasury yields, while investors await U.S. economic data due this week that could further illuminate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

Spot gold was steady at $2,026.30 per ounce. U.S. gold futures were also flat at $2,041.20...[MORE]

Despite a lack of direction in the dollar in the early going today, the gold market remains vulnerable on its charts but supported by global central bank dovishness.

While we suspect gold and silver will take a huge amount of direction from the dollar and from US treasuries there is a developing physical demand threat from ongoing malaise in the Chinese economy.

The struggling Chinese economy is partially verified by ongoing weakness in Chinese equity markets relative to the very impressive gains in global equity markets...[MORE]

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Gold prices climbed on Monday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and bond yields as markets awaited U.S. inflation data due this week to ascertain the Federal Reserve’s policy path after a dovish spin last week.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,025.49 per ounce. U.S. gold futures were higher by 0.2% at $2,039.40...[LINK]

Despite a building overbought condition in gold and silver, prices continue to extend on the upside this morning in what we consider long-term fundamental-based investment trading.

Evidence of the bulls piling on the trade was seen overnight from Commerzbank predicting gold to reach $2150 in the second half of next year and silver to reach $30 per ounce by the end of next year.

As we have indicated in financial market coverage all week the magnitude of the anticipated pivot by the Fed, after a historic rate hike cycle obviously justifies a significant and sustained reaction in precious metal prices...[MORE]

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Gold prices were on track for a weekly jump, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields, after the Federal Reserve indicated lower borrowing costs next year.

Spot gold, which edged up 0.3% at $2,041.70 per ounce, has risen 1.9% so far this week. U.S. gold futures gained 0.6% to $2,056.40...[LINK]

The gold and silver trade is euphoric over what the trade is calling an official pivot by the US Fed toward cutting interest rates as the rallies from yesterday's lows are quite profound and appear to have momentum.

As in other markets, near-term overbought technical signals in gold and silver should be ignored by the markets today, as traders continue to embrace euphoria which is likely to extend through today's session.

Obviously, the sharp slide in the dollar and the precipitous drop in interest rates combined with a dovish Fed is a perfect bullish storm that is likely to be capable of attracting buying fuel despite a quickly expanding and overdone net spec and fund long positioning...[MORE]

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Gold prices extended gains on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an end to its tightening cycle and lower borrowing costs in 2024, which sent the dollar and Treasury yields lower.

Spot gold was 0.4% higher at $2,034.35 per ounce, after surging 2.4% on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures jumped 2.6% to $2,049...[LINK]

Downtrends in gold and silver are likely to extend with initial US inflation readings soft but the dollar does not show definitive weakness from that news.

In fact, further evidence of the negative bias toward gold and silver is the lack of support from a resumption of a falling US interest rate environment.

The bear camp should also be emboldened by the prospects of slumping Chinese physical demand as troubles in the Chinese economy (verified by continued weakness in Chinese equity markets and a disappointing new loan report) should crimp Chinese gold imports...[MORE]

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Dec 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged up on Wednesday, buoyed by weaker Treasury yields, but bullion was still near its lowest in over three weeks as the dollar inched higher ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy outlook.

Spot gold gained 0.1% at $1,981.30 per ounce, as of 1157 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,997.60...[LINK]

The precious metals have stayed within a fairly tight trading range and are holding onto a mild positive tone coming into this morning's action.

A pullback in the Dollar has provided gold and silver with early support in front of this morning's critical US inflation data after gold and silver moved below their 200-day moving averages yesterday.

Expectations for a soft US CPI report later today should strengthen the bull case if the report matches expectations of a gain of 0.1%...[MORE]

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Dec 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices recovered from a three-week low hit the previous session, as a weaker dollar provided support on Tuesday ahead of U.S. inflation data and major central bank policy meetings expected to yield clues on interest rates.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,988.69 per ounce, as of 1211 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,004.10...[LINK]

Given the fundamental and technical events of the last two weeks, the trend in gold and silver has shifted back in favor of the bear camp.

From a technical perspective, the massive rally last week exhibited a classic blowoff top and reversal with confirmation from an explosion in trading volume and a subsequent decline in open interest.

From a fundamental perspective, the mainstay of the bull case in precious metal markets since October has been a weakening dollar which now appears to have recovered especially with the market's decision that despite signs of US slowing, the US will likely hold up better than most in the face of the lagged headwinds from the unprecedented rate hike cycle...[MORE]

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Gold prices declined on Monday pressured by a firm U.S. dollar, as investors look ahead to several major central bank meetings and U.S. inflation data this week for further clarity on the interest rate path.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,994.70 per ounce. U.S. gold futures eased 0.3% to $2,009.10...[LINK]

Predicting the reaction in gold and silver to today's US payroll report is difficult as the precious metal trade this week has periodically delinking with key outside market drivers in place over the prior two months.

Recently, the focus of gold and silver has shifted primarily to the dollar with US treasury rates a secondary and inconsistent influence.

Pushed into the market, we favor the bear track with the aggressive blowoff reversal and a follow-through slide in gold and silver prices this week threatening the bull camp...[MORE]

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Dec 8 (Reuters) - Gold prices were flat on Friday, as markets looked forward to the crucial U.S. jobs data for more clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, although a firmer dollar kept bullion on track for its first weekly fall in four.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,029.49 per ounce by 1203 GMT. Bullion, however, has fallen nearly 1.9% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures were flat at $2,046.00...[LINK]

In retrospect, gold and silver bulls should be disappointed/discouraged by the lack of bullish response to what has been a consistently falling implied US treasury yields but that support has been aggressively countered by residual signs of strength in the dollar.

Yesterday the laser focus on the prospect of a US rate cut early next year was lost again as cumulatively this week's jobs reports have signaled slowing.

Perhaps the trade is waiting for ultimate confirmation of slowing from the most important jobs report of the cycle, the nonfarm payroll report on Friday...[MORE]

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Dec 7 (Reuters) - Gold prices climbed on Thursday, buoyed by a weakness in the dollar and Treasury yields, with investors awaiting crucial U.S. payrolls data that could help ascertain the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,032.90 per ounce by 1155 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $2,050.20...[LINK]

Gold prices rallied overnight as bulls took advantage of the lull in the dollar. Although interest rates were up marginally overnight the bull camp was spurred on by continued hopes of a rate cut.

Bulls will be watching this morning's ADP data for evidence of further weakness in the US economy that might warrant Fed dovishness

.

The Perth Mint reported that gold sales jumped 26.52%, to 53,520oz this month, as the demand for physical bullion surged...[MORE]

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Dec 6 (Reuters) - Gold buyers in China are getting younger, as a property market downturn, weakening stocks and currency and low bank deposit interest rates have left them with dwindling options to save for rainy days in a sputtering economy.

The trend underscores heightening uncertainty about growth prospects in the world's second-largest economy, which has not recovered from COVID-19 lockdowns as fast as consumers and job hunters had expected...[LINK]

Dec 6 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday buoyed by lower bond yields, while investors awaited for a crucial U.S. employment report that could set the tone for Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,023.62 per ounce by 1247 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $2,041.60...[LINK]

Volatility is likely to continue in gold and silver as the trade continues to waffle back and forth from the ebb and flow of potential central bank policy bias changes.

In fact, today's US scheduled data window will likely add or subtract to the first quarter rate cut assumption (generally held by the trade), but we give the edge to the dollar bears/gold bulls from the potential for a softening US economy take away through this morning's US reports.

We must note the lack of a flight to quality surge in gold overnight following Moody's downgrade of Chinese credit especially with a lack of gold buying following a noted uptick in Chinese credit default swap rates...[MORE]

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Dec 5 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, trading $100 below the record high level hit in the last session, as the dollar held firm and investors awaited more U.S. economic data this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate outlook.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at $2,024.30 per ounce by 1200 GMT. Bullion had climbed to an all-time high of $2,135.40 on Monday, before dropping more than $100 in a single day to close 2% lower...[LINK]

While the February gold contract exploded to all-time highs overnight the market recoiled aggressively and at times this morning gold was trading $79 off its high!

With the dollar showing early strength and US treasuries showing slightly higher yields, the gold and silver markets obviously received buying from something other than their recent focus.

It appears the markets garnered flight to quality buying from two separate issues related to military events. Flight to quality issues thought to be lifting precious metal prices overnight were the ballistic missile attack of two Israeli ships and Chinese accusations that the US Navy "seriously violated" their sovereignty after sailing into the South China Sea...[MORE]

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Gold prices notched a new record on Monday for a second day in a row — with spot prices touching $2,100 as the global rush for bullion appears set to continue.

Gold prices are on course to hit fresh highs next year and could remain above $2,000 levels, analysts said, citing geopolitical uncertainty, a likely weaker U.S. dollar and possible interest rate cuts...[LINK]

As goes the dollar, so goes gold in the opposite direction! In fact, with yesterday's dollar reversal and today's upside $ extension gold is facing a critical junction and perhaps a failure of key support following today's early US scheduled data.

However, the jury is out on the impact of today's PCE and initial claims readings, with soft PCE and higher initial claims data still capable of resurrecting the bull case in gold and silver.

Therefore, further evidence of a US Fed pivot early next year to lower rates has been heavily factored with the November low-to-high rally of $127 and it now needs fresh bullish fuel...[MORE]

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Nov 30 (Reuters) - Gold prices eased on Thursday as the dollar staged a rebound ahead of U.S. inflation data, although bullion was heading for its second monthly rise boosted by hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon.

Spot gold eased 0.3% to $2,038.59 per ounce by 1207 GMT. Bullion is up 2.8% so far this month after rising 7.3% in October...[LINK]

Despite gold being overbought, the bulls are still in the driver's seat with the Feds Waller yesterday giving dovish statements ahead of the Feds blackout period.

It should also be noted that several prominent fund/money managers have predicted US rate cuts in the first quarter of 2024 and that combined with a developing pattern of softer US data should leave the dollar in a downward track and in turn leave gold and silver in upward tracks.

Along those lines, today's scheduled data could present a temporary dip in gold if US GDP readings match expectations of a minimal improvement...[MORE]

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Nov 28 (Reuters) - Gold rose for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday and hit a more than six-month high, driven by a retreating dollar and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve has finished hiking interest rates.

Spot gold gained 1.4% at $2,041.55 per ounce by 3:00 p.m. ET (2000 GMT), highest since May 10...[LINK]

With a fresh new low for the move in the dollar this morning (the lowest trade since September 1st) and February gold prices sitting just under yesterday's new high for the move, the bull camp extends its control into another session.

However, the trade will face another US note auction today (seven-year notes), and we caution traders against assuming somewhat positive auction results today as was noted from the short-end auction yesterday.

In conclusion, another average auction result and/or a soft auction will thicken resistance over gold and weaken support under gold...[MORE]

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Nov 28 (Reuters) - Gold held its ground on Tuesday after touching a six-month peak, buoyed by expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hikes, ahead of the release of key economic data.

Spot gold was steady at $2,013.59 per ounce by 1306 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 16 earlier in the session...[LINK]

Clearly, the gold market has seen the bull camp revitalized by signs of a resumption of the dollar downtrend and has managed the rally despite evidence of a decline in Chinese October net mainland gold imports through Hong Kong.

Therefore, the gold trade continues to focus on dollar and interest rate action at the expense of classic internal supply and demand developments.

In fact, while the story should be regarded as "old" the trade continues to pound the drum on an on-hold global central bank theme...[MORE]

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Nov 27 (Reuters) - Gold prices hit a more than six-month high on Monday, firming above the $2,000 per ounce level, as a weaker dollar and expectations of an end to U.S. interest rate hikes lifted demand.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,012.33 per ounce by 1147 GMT, after reaching its highest since May 16 at $2,017.82. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.5% to $2,013.10...[LINK]

Gold prices rose slightly overnight, even as the dollar index managed to rebound off of its 200-day moving average. This support level for the dollar gives the gold bears something to get excited about.

Gold is still digesting yesterday's FOMC Minutes as it shows the Fed is weary of worsening financial conditions. But with the bond yields failing to fall further overnight, we might expect gold bulls to take a break.

Today's focus will be on this morning's Durable Goods release, where the market is expecting a rather large drop from last month...[MORE]

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Nov 22 (Reuters) - Gold prices hovered near the key $2,000 level on Wednesday, as expectations of an end to the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle kept the dollar and U.S. bond yields subdued.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,000.38 per ounce as of 1201 GMT, after rising as high as $2006.19 earlier in the session. Bullion scaled a three-week high of $2,007.29 on Tuesday...[LINK]

In the early going today the charts favor the bull camp with December gold showing respect for support at the 200-day moving average of $1981.50. The market is also supported fundamentally by a downside extension in the dollar and evidence of significant expansion in Swiss gold exports.

In our opinion, the gold and silver are primarily focused on action in the dollar. With the dollar (and many non-dollar currencies) sitting on 200-day moving averages, several trend signals could be in the offing.

Part of the bullishness from the 53% jump in Swiss gold exports last month was factored in following news last week that Indian gold imports had jumped sharply...[MORE]

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Nov 21 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose to an over two-week high on Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar dipped on expectations that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates, while investors awaited minutes from the central bank's latest meeting for further policy cues.

Spot gold climbed 0.5% to $1,987.79 per ounce, as of 1215 GMT, after hitting its highest level since Nov. 3 earlier in the session...[LINK]

We see the action in gold and silver this morning as very discouraging and defeating for the bull camp, especially in gold given the sharp range down extension of the US dollar.

In fact, with the Indian government pegging October gold imports jumped by 60% over year-ago levels (the highest in 31 months), a surging bear case in the dollar, and expectations the FOMC meeting minutes will again confirm the US rate hike cycle is done, the gold market should be up $11 instead of down $11.

In addition to the strong jump in Indian gold imports, the Reserve Bank of India added 9 tons of gold in the third quarter which should revitalize hopes of ongoing global central bank gold purchases...[MORE]

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Nov 20 (Reuters) - Gold prices on Monday slipped from their two-week highs hit in the last session, as U.S. Treasury yields bounced back, with investors looking forward to the minutes of Federal Reserve's last meeting to gauge the U.S. central bank's policy stance.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,972.26 0 per ounce as of 1146 GMT, after rising as high as $1,993.29 on Friday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,974.60...[LINK]

Gold and silver face a critical "focus" junction today with action in the dollar likely to support, while US data and misguided/overstated disinflation predictions undermine sentiment.

However, we favor the downward tilt with the euphoria from the end of the historic US interest rate hike cycle fully injected into gold and silver prices with the rallies earlier this week.

We think the focus will be primarily on US continuing claims this morning which will be followed by what is expected to be soft US heavy industry/manufacturing data...[MORE]

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Nov 16 (Reuters) -Gold prices rose on Thursday as the U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, amid prospects that the Federal Reserve is done with its rate hike cycle.

Spot gold gained 0.3% to $1,965.08 per ounce, as of 1056 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,967.70...[LINK]

Despite the short-term overbought technical condition in gold following a two-day low-to-high rally of $42, and a minimal bounce in the dollar early today follow-through gains are likely.

However, the market's reaction to the second key US inflation reading (PPI) should be less significant as the trade has priced a large portion of the "end of the historic rate hike cycle" mentality.

On the other hand, the gold market is not without fresh bullish developments with India reporting a significant jump in gold imports...[MORE]

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Nov 15 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose to a more than one-week high on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields weakened after cooler inflation data boosted bets that a U.S rate cut might come sooner than earlier priced in by investors.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,970.45 per ounce at 1224 GMT, after earlier touching its highest since Nov. 7. U.S. gold futures also gained 0.4% to $1,974.70...[LINK]

The technical path of least resistance is down in gold with a series of lower highs and lower lows presenting bearish charts.

We also see the fundamental bias pointing down in gold and silver as a muted US CPI reading fosters a thin measure of long liquidation from long-suffering gold inflation bulls.

However, the bull camp hopes that muted inflation will spark talk of the end of the rate hike cycle and potentially provide a measure of misguided buying off talk of rate "cuts" next year...[MORE]

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Nov 14 (Reuters) -Gold prices were flat on Tuesday as traders maintained caution ahead of the U.S. inflation print due later in the day for further cues on the interest rate path in the world’s largest economy.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,947.39 per ounce, as of 1021 GMT, trading in a narrow range of $6, after hitting its lowest in more than three weeks on Monday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,951.30...[LINK]

Unfortunately for the bull camp, the gold trade continues to embrace the bearish bias from last week with expectations the dollar will continue to climb, and the charts remain bearish.

With the last day of Diwali tomorrow the opportunity for Indian festival demand is past.

While there will be an avalanche of global inflation readings this week, we do not see that information playing a determining role for gold and silver prices, and most readings are expected to show only incremental changes it is unlikely there will be a definitive opinion on the direction of upcoming central bank policy changes.

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Nov 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices steadied near a three-week low on Monday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data due this week to gauge the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,936.67 per ounce, as of 1212 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $1,940.60...[LINK]

The gold market simply remains fundamentally out of favor and has bearish charts again this morning.

While the selling yesterday was reportedly from the hawkish Fed chairman dialogue, that is unlikely the source of today's noted weakness as the gold market recovered and closed in positive territory yesterday after the Fed news yesterday.

Even though the gold market has not shown consistent interest in flight to quality issues, we see a major financial and economic market decision in the coming seven days...[MORE]

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Nov 10 (Reuters) -Gold fell on Friday and was bound for a second straight weekly drop on cooling safe-haven demand and hawkish cues from Federal Reserve Chair Powell.

Autocatalyst palladium, meanwhile, extended its slump en route to its worst week in over 15 months, hurt by excess stocks amid wider adoption of electric vehicles while automakers switch to cheaper platinum...[LINK]

While the net takeaway from several US Federal Reserve speeches yesterday was not patently dovish, strength in treasury bond prices and signs the dollar rally is fizzling suggest some markets interpreted Fed news yesterday as dovish.

However, generally dovish chatter in the market has not provided gold with any support which clearly points to a bearish preference by the trade.

With an avalanche of global central banker speeches this morning and the Fed chairman yesterday indicating he thinks Fed economic forecasters need to be open-minded and consider inputs beyond typical indicators gold isn't even looking for bullish prospects...[MORE]

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Nov 9 (Reuters) -Gold was on track for a fourth straight day of decline on Thursday as safe-haven demand cooled, while the spotlight shifted to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for cues on interest rates.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,948.39 per ounce by 1141 GMT after hitting its lowest since Oct. 18. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,953.30...[LINK]

With the dollar posting a three-day high early today, gold lingering near yesterday's lows and holding below the 200-day moving average at $1982.90, the bear camp has extended control.

In fact, a notable Gold ETF holdings inflow yesterday of 136,494 ounces and news that the UK government is sanctioning two of Russia's largest gold producers (Nord Gold and Highland Gold) have been largely discounted by the financial Press this morning. In fact, the UK government indicated they are especially cracking down on Russian gold and oil networks that are providing funding for the Russian war economy!

Unfortunately for the bull camp typical bearish dollar developments are being discounted in the currency trade and perhaps more importantly the prospect of further declines in US treasury yields has been pushed to the sidelines by Dollar traders...[MORE]

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Nov 8 (Reuters) - Gold fell for a third straight session on Wednesday, with markets focusing on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, while auto-catalyst palladium extended its retreat to a five-year low.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,961.70 per ounce by 1227 GMT. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.2% to $1,968.80...[LINK]

Gold has been a one-way bearish trade the entire overnight session as traders seem to be unwinding long positions on the back of weaker-than-expected Chinese data and an ongoing bounce in the dollar.

Some of the normal bullish gold catalysts have been completely discounted. Furthermore, Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel will now take 'indefinite' control over Gaza, and that has failed to give support to gold prices.

On the bullish side, China recorded a record gold holding this month with 71.2Mn ounces. What makes this data unique is the fact that Chinese FX reserves dropped sharply over the past three months, which normally signals weaker gold demand, as they dollar-cost-average their holdings...[MORE]

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Nov 7 (Reuters) - Gold fell to a near two-week low on Tuesday on a firmer dollar, with traders positioning for interest rate cues from a host of Federal Reserve speakers this week.

Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,967.09 per ounce by 1050 GMT, its lowest since Oct. 25. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.8% to $1,973.50...[LINK]

Gold was down overnight as it tried to hold onto its October gains. As expected, Anthony Blinken left the Holy Land with no solutions or real support. But this political and military lull in the Middle East conflict has created a dull to slightly bearish trading environment for gold.

With the war lacking flight to quality type anxiety, traders will now start to turn their focus back to the Fed Chairman speech on Wednesday.

Despite two-sided volatility in the dollar last week and a range of 220 points, ultimately a downside breakout to the lowest level since September 20th is a major technical signal of a top in the dollar...[MORE]

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Nov 6 (Reuters) - Gold inched lower on Monday as risk appetite picked up, while traders awaited further cues on the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy path with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and a slew of Fed members’ speeches due this week.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,987.29 per ounce at 1152 GMT after rising above the key $2,000 level on Friday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,994.50...[LINK]

The gold market has held steady overnight as the world awaits this morning's US non-farm payrolls data.

On the political front Asian nations are now asking Iran to go get their foreign nationals from Hamas, while Anthony Blinken arrives in Israel to try and negotiate a "humanitarian pause".

This comes after the IDF started to demolish houses belonging to terrorists in Gaza. Israeli defense forces were reported to have cut Gaza into two, wedging their forces from the Mediterranean coast to isolate the Hamas-rich northern part of Gaza.

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Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold was headed for its first weekly loss in nearly a month on Friday as the safe-haven rally cooled, while traders largely kept to the sidelines ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later in the day.

Spot gold ticked up 0.1% to $1,987.79 per ounce by 1154 GMT, trading in a tight $6 range. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.1% to $1,995.40...[LINK]

The technical and fundamental bias has shifted up for gold and silver following the latest update on the status of US Fed policy.

Obviously, the idea that the Fed will be on hold in the December 13th meeting, the downside breakout in US treasury yields today, and the definitive reversal/gap downslide in the dollar early this morning gives the edge to the bull camps in gold and silver.

However, the initial gains are somewhat disappointing given the noted favorable shift in market psychology, especially with the potential for the war to provide out-of-nowhere buying...[MORE]

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Nov 2 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Thursday, supported by a retreat in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields as investors wagered that the Federal Reserve may have concluded rate hikes after the central bank held interest rates steady.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,988.40 per ounce at 1120 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $1,996.70...[LINK]

After starting the week with a gap-up opening, gold prices are now back to where they started, despite the Middle East conflict continuing to get messier. Yesterday saw the Israelis blow up a refugee camp where a Hamas commander was hiding.

Of more importance today is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and, more importantly, wording from the statement and Fed press conference.

While the gold market has displayed some bullish resiliency throughout October, a lack of incendiary developments in the Middle East and renewed strength in the US dollar initially stalled December gold again around the $2,017.70 level and ultimately prompted a wave of long profit-taking yesterday...[MORE]

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Nov 1 (Reuters) - Gold was flat on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, while all eyes will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later for guidance on rate path.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,983.32 per ounce by 1214 GMT. U.S. gold futures ticked lower by 0.1% to $1,992.40...[LINK]

The early action in gold this morning is disappointing with an expansion of tensions in the Middle East overnight with Yemeni Huthis attacking Israel and Saudi Arabia launching an attack against Yemen.

This comes as the Israelis clinched the key thoroughfare that connects northern Gaza with the south.

The bull camp should be further deflated from the lack of gains this morning following declines in the dollar and a surprising and massive single-day gold ETF inflow of 690,904 ounces yesterday...[MORE]

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Oct 31 (Reuters) - Gold steadied on Tuesday on caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week, but held on track for its biggest monthly rise since November last year as the Israel-Hamas war boosted safe-haven bets.

Spot gold was unchanged at $1,996.11 per ounce by 0910 GMT, having spiked as high as $2,009.29 on Friday. U.S. gold futures were also steady at $2,005.80...[LINK]

Gold remains well bid after trading above $2000 on Friday for the first time since May. The yellow metal continues to be supported by flight-to-quality flows stemming largely from high geopolitical tensions.

Spot Gold Daily Chart through 10/30/2023

With the IDF expanding ground operations into the Gaza Strip, there is growing concern that Iran may prompt Hezbollah, its proxy in the north, to open a second front against Israel. According to an op-ed in Monday’s Wall Street Journal, “Tehran can’t sit back and watch Israel obliterate Hamas.”

In an effort to quell the potential for expansion to a broader regional conflict, the U.S. continues to deploy additional troops and advisors to the area. Iranian-backed militias have already perpetrated attacks against U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq.

While the war in the Middle East seems to have pushed Ukraine from the headlines, that war rages on as well. Russia launched an offensive this month in an effort to take the town of Avdiivka in the contested Donbas region. Both sides are reportedly experiencing heavy losses.

Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu speaking at a defense forum in Beijing accused the U.S. of stoking geopolitical tensions and warned of the risk of conflict between nuclear-armed countries. “Having provoked an acute crisis in Europe, the West is seeking to spread conflict potential to the Asia-Pacific region, and in several directions,” said Shoigu.

Robust U.S. economic data may be tempering the upside for gold amid rising concerns that the Fed may hike rates again before year-end. Advance Q3 GDP came in at a blistering 4.9% pace, the fastest pace in nearly 2 years.

Consumer spending is the driving force, but analysts wonder how long it can last. Evidence suggests that savings are being depleted and consumers are increasingly turning to credit cards.

The average APR on retail credit cards hit a new all-time high of 28.93% according to Bankrate. Even bank cards are approaching 30% APR for those with less than pristine credit ratings.

A CFPB report found that credit card companies charged borrowers a record-high $130 bln in interest and fees in 2022. Total credit card debt is now more than $1 trillion, while total household debt exceeded $17 trillion at the end of Q2.

American consumers are seemingly following the lead of their government, which has accumulated more than $30 trillion in debt. Spending what you do not have is de rigueur, putting the Fed in a bit of a bind.

 Silver

Silver closed down 1.16% last week, ending the string of higher weekly closes at two. The white metal is not garnering the same haven interest as gold, focusing instead on the economic uncertainty associated with war along with the rest of the commodity complex.

Spot Silver Daily Chart through 10/30/2023

The rally since the beginning of the Middle East conflict has stalled in a range where the major moving averages have converged. The old range that held for much of the summer between $26.14 and $22.11 is back in play.

Selling silver in a flight-to-quality environment is not a particularly attractive play. Look for at least a slight upward bias to persist, particularly if the Fed remains on hold. If gold pushes higher toward new all-time highs, investors may well turn to silver as a less-expensive alternative.

A rebound above the $24.05 Fibonacci level would set a more favorable tone within the range, shifting focus to the $25.27 high from 17-Jul.

A retreat below $22.00 would suggest potential for further retracement to $21.57.

PGMs

 Platinum jumped nearly 3.5% on Monday, adding to gains seen over the previous three weeks. The breach of nearby technical levels may have sparked the gains, sending platinum back above the midpoint of the Covid-era range as well as the 100-day SMA.

Spot Platinum Daily Chart through 10/30/2023

A Bloomberg article over the weekend suggested that traders and banks were showing renewed interest in Russian metals. This may be impacting prices favorably at least initially even though in theory it could conceivably increase the supply of PGMs.

Palladium is off the 5-year low set last week, but upticks appear to be corrective in nature. The trend remains definitively bearish.

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold futures gapped higher this morning to a new post-Hamas attack high of $2,004.

Gold positioning in the Commitments of Traders for the week ending October 24th showed Managed Money traders net bought 48,815 contracts and are now net long 90,682 contracts. Non-commercial & non-reportable traders were net long 169,754 contracts after increasing their already long position by 43,725 contracts.

With the December gold contract into the high Friday sitting $37 above the level where the last positioning report was measured, the net spec and fund long is only the highest since July...[MORE]

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