Today could be volatile for the precious metals, as the trade awaits ECB President Draghi's comments about monetary policy. The ECB is expected to ease, but some top officials have expressed concern about resuming large-scale bond purchases.
A rate cut has been expected to clear the way for the US Fed to cut rates at the FOMC meeting next week. The questions facing the gold market are whether it has priced in too much easing and whether it will be satisfied with whatever move the ECB takes.
President Trump on Wednesday called on the Fed to push interest rates down to zero or lower if necessary. The gold market rallied slightly off this news, but it did not make it through Tuesday's highs. However, gold continued to gain overnight, and the December contract traded to its highest level since Monday.
The selloff from the September 4th highs has allowed both gold and silver to correct their overbought conditions.
One thing lacking from the market now that was present before the selloff is the safe-haven impulse that had been sending investors into gold and silver. ECB investment interest has been flat since then. It could be difficult to mount a consistent rally without safe-haven buying, even if central banks cut rates.
The trade is looking for a low CPI result today, which would also open the door for a rate cut by the Fed and could balance or even add to any net effect of the ECB announcement.
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