Apparently the gold market is not undermined as a result of Bloomberg forecasts of a narrower Indian trade deficit which is thought to be the result of lower gold and oil imports. It was estimated that Indian gold imports in June dropped by $2.1 billion on a month over month basis.
However gold might be supported this morning by news that economic and environmental pressures are causing some African governments to consider halting gold mining activities by Chinese companies following studies suggesting the activity does more damage than benefit for the local population.
However, geopolitical events could be a spark for the bull camp as protests in Hong Kong have spread from downtown areas and the French Foreign Minister has suggested the US/Iran conflict could "stumble" into a war.
Certainly the gold market has been put off balance by a slight tempering of aggressive US rate cut hopes, but that issue will still remain a supportive theme. It might also be an important week for gold derivative holdings which have recently seen a pattern of builds with total holdings up to the highest levels since February.
Unfortunately for the bull camp, the net spec and fund long positioning in gold last week reached the highest levels since August 2016! The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 9th showed Gold Managed Money traders net sold 24,021 contracts and are now net long 217,142 contracts.
Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders are net long 310,208 contracts after net selling 14,550 contracts. In short, the bull camp has burned a lot of technical fuel and needs to see one of many recent bullish fundamental storylines rekindled into a distinct bullish force.
To a similar degree, the silver market is also lacking direction as it remains within a four week wide trading range bound by $15.60 and $14.91. The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 9th showed Silver Managed Money traders net sold 6,295 contracts and are now net long 15,467 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders are net long 43,872 contracts after net selling 7,120 contracts.
We invite you to subscribe to receive our more comprehensive market update delivered directly to your inbox.
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete and/or up to date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Financial Services LLC, unless otherwise expressly noted.
