Spot gold continued to press lower in overseas trading, establishing another 6-month low at 1248.38. The yellow metal continues to be weighed by trade war concerns and a strong dollar.
The dollar index has fully retraced the recent corrective pullback. A more convincing breach of last week’s high at 95.53 would bode well for a push to the 96.76 Fibonacci objective (50% retracement of the decline from 103.82 (03-Jan-17 high) to 88.25 (16-Feb low).
If the dollar is destined for additional gains, gold is going to remain under pressure. Scope remains for a short-term challenge of the 1236.41 low from 12-Dec-17. This targeted level is bolstered by Fibonacci support at 1244.40 (50% retracement level of the rally from 1122.82 Dec 2016 low to 1365.98 25-Jan high), as well as the 200-week moving average at 1233.76.
Given the significance of the 1244.50/1233/76 support zone and the developing oversold condition, a push though this area may prove difficult initially. Some profit taking ahead of the weekend would not be surprising. Trading is likely to be thin next week with the U.S. Independence Day holiday falling on Wednesday.
Silver remains defensive after falling through the 16.04 low (01-May) in late trading on Wednesday, setting a new low for the year at 15.96. These losses confirm potential to the low end of the broader range at 15.61 (12-Dec-17 low). Focus remains on selling strategies.
A rebound above the 16.48/50 level is needed to set a more positive tone within the well defined range. This level is now well protected by several tiers of intervening resistance, the first of which being the overnight high at 16.13.
Platinum extended to the downside to set a new 28-month low at 846.48. The negation of minor support at 849.60 bodes well for the anticipated test of the key 810.30 low from Jan 2016. Initial resistance is at 856.31/857.07.
Palladium is back on the defensive after failing to generate any upside follow-through from Tuesday’s key reversal. A retest of the 930.72/929.92 support now looks likely and penetration would shift focus to the April low at 889.44. Resistances at 960.42 and 965.81/967.82 are now protected by the overnight high at 953.40.
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete and/or up to date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Group LLC, unless otherwise expressly noted.
