Gold eked out a new 2-week low on Wednesday but remained generally consolidative at the low end of the recent range. The yellow metal managed a higher close, but the market is looking forward to some fresh news.
Friday's U.S. jobs report is the next big data drop. Median expectations for nonfarm payrolls are +163k and the jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 3.5%. However, Wednesday's much better than expected +291k ADP survey print (median +156k) suggests there may be potential for an upside surprise on the jobs front.
Favorable U.S. data are likely to keep risk appetite elevated, which could keep gold and other haven assets on the defensive. Markets have been increasingly inclined to discount coronavirus concerns, seeing it as a crisis largely confined to China.
As of this writing, the total confirmed cases stands at 28,009, with 27,767 (99.1%) in the PRC. The death toll stands at 564. Understandably these numbers have allowed investors elsewhere in the world to shift their attention back to underlying fundamentals.
While commodities have seen some relief this week, Chinese demand is hugely important. It will likely take some more positive news out of China on the coronavirus to trigger more substantial retracement of the recent losses.
Chinese gold jewelry demand was already on the ropes, reaching a 7-year low last year. Further contraction was expected this year, even before the coronavirus outbreak. That the crisis happened right as the Lunar New Year celebration kicked-off has been offsetting haven interest in the yellow metal.
A rebound above 1570.49 is needed to ease short term pressure on the downside and return a measure of credence to the underlying uptrend. On the downside, we continue to watch supports at 1546.31 and 1535.94.
Silver was narrowly confined, while platinum rebounded to new highs for the week. Palladium recovered to pressure $2500 for the first time in 2-weeks. Rhodium notched yet another record high at $10.775. Palladium and rhodium still look like they have further upside potential.
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