9/6/2024
Gold and silver initially rallied on NFP miss, but subsequently retreated
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 142k in August, below expectations of +162k, versus a negative revised +89k in July (was +114k). June was revised lower by 61k from 179k to 118k.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% in line with expectations, versus 4.3% in July.
Hourly earnings rose 0.4% on expectations of +0.3%, versus a 0.2% rise in July.
The average workweek ticked up to 34.3 hours in line with expectations, versus 4.2% in July.
The 20k miss on the August payrolls print wasn't as bad as some of the whispers. However, -86k in back-month revisions to the previous two months strengthened – at least initially – the probability of a 50 bps rate cut on 18-Sep.
The likelihood of a 50 bps cut jumped to 59% immediately after the jobs report but those odds plunged in subsequent trading. As of this writing, the chances are just 25%, 5 percentage points lower than last week.
"[I]t is now appropriate to dial down the degree of restrictiveness in the stance of policy," said New York Fed President John Willams (centrist). However, Williams claims not to have a personal opinion on the appropriate size of a September rate cut, repeating the Fed's 'data dependence' mantra.
“The balance of risks has shifted toward the employment side of our dual mandate,” said Fed Governor Chris Waller (hawk). He noted that recent jobs data "no longer requires patience, it requires action." Waller said he was "open-minded about the size and pace of rate cuts," but seemed to hint at a preference for a slower pace of rate cuts.
I continue to believe the Fed's first step on the easing path will be a cautious one. In commentary earlier this week, I suggested a sub-100k August payrolls print might get me to change my view. While July was revised down below 100k, August was just moderately below expectations.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$2.45 (+0.10%)
5-Day Change: +$7.86 (+0.31%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,529.57
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,529.57
Weighted Alpha: +31.81
Gold jumped to a new high for the week after nonfarm payrolls missed expectations prompting more aggressive rate-cut bets and a drop in the dollar. However, gains stalled ahead of the record high at $2,529.57 and the yellow metal retreated into the range.
Despite today's volatility, gold still appears poised to register a higher weekly close. If confirmed with a close above $2,503.45, it would be the fourth higher weekly close in six.
Tests of the downside this week were successfully contained by the 20-day moving average on a close basis. I find that to be technically encouraging.
Price action since the record high was established on 20-Aug has been only mildly corrective; dropping just 2.2% from high to low. Arguably the tone for the past two weeks has been more consolidative than anything.
The underlying trend remains decisively bullish. The yellow metal is up more than 20% year to date and has closed higher every month except January. Gold is up nearly 30% since 06-Sep'23.
A short-term move to new all-time highs will favor a test of the $2,539.77 Fibonacci objective. Beyond that, potential is to the $2,597.15/$2,600.00 zone.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.021 (+0.07%)
5-Day Change: -$0.360 (-1.25%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +23.08
Silver modest upticks after the jobs report stalled ahead of yesterday's high at $29.125 leading to a sharp sell-off to new 3-week low. The white metal is now down more than $1 on the day and trading below $28.
Silver is poised for a second consecutive lower weekly close. This market sucks you in with encouraging signals and then spits you right back out again.
The resilience displayed by gold should provide some underpinning to the market, but that's not readily apparent at this point. Suddenly the $27.303 Fibonacci level (78.6% retrace of the August rally) is back in play.
I don't think it will get there today as this move is already pretty overdone. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least some short-covering into the close.
There are still 12 days until the FOMC announces policy. A lot can happen between now and then. Look for silver to remain volatile as traders on each side of the 25 bps or 50 bps debate continue to duke it out.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
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